Books - The Population Bomb

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	Books - The Population Bomb

The Population Bomb (1968) is a book written by Paul R. Ehrlich. A best-selling work, it predicted disaster for humanity due to overpopulation and the "population explosion". The book predicted that "in the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death", due to lack of agricultural capacity. This prediction did not come true, due for the most part to the efforts of Norman Borlaug's "Green Revolution" of the 1960s. Although the book is primarily a repetition of the Malthusian catastrophe argument, that population growth will outpace agricultural growth unless controlled, it expressed the possibility of disaster in broader terms.

A "population bomb," as defined in the book, requires only three things:

A rapid rate of change
A limit of some sort
Delays in perceiving the limit

As an example, consider a limit on cheap fossil fuel energy. A seemingly endless fossil fuel supply exists, but the amount of effort required for energy production varies with the quality of the raw materials. Once the light crude oil which can be produced and processed quickly and cheaply is drained, the rate of oil production will decline. Therefore, processed fuel products such as gasoline, diesel and heating oil will become more scarce. Because demand is increasing as the human population expands and economic growth creates new relatively wealthy consumers in Third World nations, the amount of per-capita energy from fossil fuels will decline, decreasing the quality of life.

This example meets the first criterion, rapid rate of change, because there are multiple factors on a global scale, resource depletion and demand expansion. It meets the second as fossil fuels are non-renewable. It meets the third critera because the issue has been reported on for over thirty years.

Also worth noting is Ehrlich's introduction of the Impact formula:

I = PAT (where I=Impact, PAT = Population x Affluence x Technology)

Hence, Ehrlich argues, affluent technological nations have a greater per capita impact that poorer nations.

Although Ehrlich’s theory influenced 1960’s and 1970's public policy, a post-analysis by Keith Greiner (1994) observed that Ehrlich’s projections could not possibly have held the scrutiny of time because Ehrlich applied the financial compound interest formula to population growth. Using two sets of assumptions based on the Ehrlich theory, it was shown that the theorized wild growth in population and subsequent scarcity of resources could not have occurred on Ehrlich’s time schedule. The historical US population growth was more linear than exponential. Nevertheless The Population Bomb sold many copies and raised the general awareness of population and environmental issues. Early 21st century analyses of the age distribution of the US population show that growth in population declined after “the pill” was approved for widespread use. That approval was likely influenced by Ehrlich’s work. (Reference: Greiner, K. (1994, Winter). The Baby Boom Generation and How they Grew, Chance: A Magazine of the American Statistical Association.)

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